{"id":1027,"date":"2009-09-08T20:49:20","date_gmt":"2009-09-08T20:49:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/meeseeks:5080\/blog\/?p=1027"},"modified":"2024-05-17T19:43:53","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T19:43:53","slug":"social-forecasting-doppio-software","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/2009\/09\/social-forecasting-doppio-software\/","title":{"rendered":"Social forecasting:  Doppio Software"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<p>Five years ago, back in the antediluvian era of Web 2.0\u00a0(the web as enabler\u00a0and facilitator of social networks), we had the idea of \u00a0social-network forecasting.\u00a0 We developed a product to enable a group of people to share and aggregate their forecasts of something, via the web.\u00a0 Because reducing greenhouse gases were also becoming <em>flavour-du-jour<\/em>, we applied these ideas to social forecasts of the price for the European Union&#8217;s carbon emission permits, in a nifty product we called <strong>Prophets-360<\/strong>.\u00a0 Sadly, due mainly to poor regulatory design of the European carbon emission market, supply greatly outstripped demand for emissions permits, and the price of permits fell quickly and has mostly stayed fallen.\u00a0 A flat curve is not difficult to predict, and certainly there was little value in comparing one person&#8217;s\u00a0forecast with that of another.\u00a0 Our venture was also felled.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<p>But now the second generation of social networking forecasting tools has arrived.\u00a0 I see that a French start-up, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.doppio-software.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Doppio Software<\/a>, has\u00a0recently launched publicly. \u00a0 They appear to have a product which has several advantages over ours:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Doppio\u00a0Software is focused on forecasting demand along a supply chain.\u00a0 This means the forecasting objective is very tactical, not the long-term strategic forecasting that CO2 emission permit prices became.\u00a0\u00a0 In the present economic climate, short-term tactical success is certainly more compelling to business customers than even looking five years hence.<\/li>\n<li>The relevant social network for a supply chain is a much stronger community of interest than the amorphous groups we had in mind for Prophets-360.\u00a0 Firstly, this community already exists (for each chain), and does not need to be created.\u00a0 Secondly, the members of the community\u00a0by definition have differential access to information, on the basis of their different positions up and down the chain.\u00a0 Thirdly, although the interests of the partners in a supply chain are not identical, these interests\u00a0<em>are<\/em> mutually-reinforcing:\u00a0 everyone in the chain benefits if the chain itself is more successful at forecasting throughput.<\/li>\n<li>In addition, Team Doppio (the <em>Doppiogangers<\/em>?)\u00a0appear to have included a very compelling value-add:\u00a0 their own automated modeling of causal relationships between the target demand variables of each client and general macro-economic variables, using\u00a0\u00a0semantic-web data and qualitative modeling technologies from AI.\u00a0 Only the largest manufacturing companies can afford their own econometricians, and such people will normally only be able to hand-craft models for\u00a0the most important variables.\u00a0 There are few companies IMO who would not benefit from Doppio&#8217;s offer here.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Of course, I&#8217;ve not seen the Doppio interface and a lot will hinge on its ease-of-use (as with all software aimed at business users).\u00a0 But this offer appears to be very sophisticated, well-crafted and compelling, combining social network forecasting, intelligent causal modeling and semantic\u00a0web technologies.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<p>Well done, Team Doppio!\u00a0 I wish\u00a0you every success with this product!  <\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>PS:<\/strong>\u00a0 I have just learnt that &#8220;doppio&#8221; means &#8220;double&#8221;, which makes it a very apposite name for this application &#8211; forecasts considered by many people, across their human network.\u00a0 Neat!\u00a0 (2009-09-16)<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n<p>Article in <em>The Observer<\/em> (UK) about Doppio 2009-09-06 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.guardian.co.uk\/business\/2009\/sep\/06\/lehman-brothers-archimbaud-doppio\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a>. And <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=F0JSMtscsnI\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">here<\/a> is an AFP TV news story (2009-09-15) about Doppio co-founder, Edouard d&#8217;Archimbaud.\u00a0 Another co-founder is Benjamin Haycraft.<\/p>\n<blockquote><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Five years ago, back in the antediluvian era of Web 2.0\u00a0(the web as enabler\u00a0and facilitator of social networks), we had the idea of \u00a0social-network forecasting.\u00a0 We developed a product to enable a group of people to share and aggregate their forecasts of something, via the web.\u00a0 Because reducing greenhouse gases were also becoming flavour-du-jour, we [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,28,40,46,47,51,67],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-decision-theory","category-forecasting","category-joint-action-society","category-manufacturing","category-market-planning","category-matherati","category-prophecy","p1","y2009","m09","d08","h20"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1027"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1027\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12582,"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1027\/revisions\/12582"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vukutu.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}